Condos see third year of price increases
In 2012 condos showed promising signs of prices beginning to bounce back. In 2013 condo sales prices clearly showed the market had rebounded. What was interesting about 2013 was that even after two years of price increases, the sales volumes didn't fall off. The reason for this was that inventory was running low on some of the floor plans at their current pricing levels. Meanwhile other floorplans that had not seen absorption for years were beginning to pick up the slack. The lack of inventory really became apparent in 2014. Even though we had price increases of 10% in both 2013 and 2014, our sales volumes were off by 21% when compared to the previous two years. I expect this trend to continue in 2015.
In 2015, we saw the prices of condominiums increase for the fourth consecutive year. Even as prices rose, sales volumes remained strong. The vast number of sales were condos built since 2000, but there was a continued increase in annual sales volumes for older units because of the price increases on newer condos.
We noticed over the year that most of the condos that sold have floor plans that bring a lower price per square foot. For instance, a two-bedroom floor plan in which the bedrooms are not located on the water will sell for considerably less than a two-bedroom floor plan in which the master bedroom is positioned on the water. Below are several graphs that demonstrate the trend that we are seeing.
Update: July 2017: Normal condo loans are available at Calypso again.
In October 2016 Calypso was added to the no lend list for the banks that finance condos in Panama City Beach. One of the considerations for providing normal condo loans to gulf front condominiums in Panama City Beach is pending litigation. Any litigation banks feel could severely impact a condominium association can cause condominiums to be added to this list. In October of 2016 the bank that buys the majority of the Panama City Beach condo loans on the secondary market added Calypso to this list.
Updated 8/30/2017: As one of the most popular condo complexes in Panama City Beach, Calypso is known for its prime location near Pier Park. Since the real estate market began to rebound in 2011, Calypso has been able to command higher prices, and these units sell for more than similar floor plans in nearby buildings.
Calypso Tower III update 9-4-2017
Calypso began construction on its third tower this summer. The original Calypso preconstruction reservations were canceled and they are taking reservations again.
If you are looking for a Panama City Beach condo, loan options may be different than you would expect for a secondary residence. I have written the following article, Condominium loans in Panama City Beach, to explain why. The article's main point is that qualified buyers who put at least 20% down can get a 5-year ARM or a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage. As of February 2017, qualified buyers can expect to get a 5 year arm amortized over 30 years with a rate of roughly 4.5%.
The average 2016 sales prices for most condominium floor plans are continuing to increase, though they are doing so at a much slower rate than in prior years. But not all condominiums have seen price increases this first quarter. Some condos are experiencing decreasing average sales prices and a few that have yet to see a sale this year.
Our sales volumes are also down 10% compared to the 2015 January through April time period. It is important to note the current pricing levels we are seeing in many buildings. If you look at many of the condominium preconstruction prices, deduct the 20% down payment, deduct closing costs and ignore all of the upkeep costs, this is roughly the same price at which the majority of condos are selling.
After a 10% increase in 2018, we are up 3% so far this year. Sales volume is down 40% compared to the same period last year. Preconstruction owners made up much of our inventory supply for years. This supply is quickly diminishing and returning us to sustainable sales volumes. Strict lending standards are keeping our condo market free from outside influences.
With only two months remaining in 2018 condo sales prices are up 10% year to date. Sales volume is up 12% compared to the same period last year. Fourth quarter sales volume is going to be significantly impacted by Hurricane Michael. This will be covered in further detail later. The majority of supply is being provided by preconstruction owners who have still not seen prices fully recover. We are seeing demand from people who want to own condos in Panama City Beach. While buyers are paying attention to the numbers, we have not seen speculators buying Panama City Beach gulf front condos. We can attribute this to strict lending standards preventing noncredit worthy buyers from entering the market. This is providing a balanced market free of outside influences.
Following an increase of 10% in 2018, we are already up by 6.9% in 2019. Compared to the same period last year, the sales volume is down by 21%, but still higher than we expected. Since 2011, we have been able to see a healthy balance with our sales volume performance. I am not seeing any signs of what would be considered as a ‘real’ pre-construction supply. As such, sales price increases and a steady volume all reflect the fact that Panama City Beach is continuing to improve, mature, and grow as a vacation destination.
We're seeing an overall theme of gradually increasing prices with sales volume falling back from the past three years' sales levels. This happens in waves (different floor plans in different buildings). There have been steady price increases over the last three years, and a large part of our sales volume occurred in floor plans located in the newer and most popular buildings.
After three consecutive years of price increases (2013 - 10.6%, 2014 10.4%, and 2015 7%), the fourth year failed to materialize. 2016 is a mixed year for condo sales prices in Panama City Beach. On average the sales prices are down 1.8% this year. Buildings and floor plans individually have been a mixed bag.